Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 0–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Newcastle against Everton: 2 November 2026 · 20:00 at St James' Park (Newcastle), referee J. Brooks. We expect a close match. Here you will find our tip, result probabilities, absences and analysis.
Newcastle vs Everton: match analysis
Why we made this tip
- Table. Newcastle are 12th with 12 points from 10 matches (3W 3D 4L); Everton are 6th with 16 points (4W 4D 2L).
- Attack and defence. Newcastle average 1.5 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per match in the competition; Everton score 1.0 and concede 1.1.
- Form in the competition. Newcastle: 3W 2D 3L, goals 12–14; Everton: 2W 4D 2L, goals 8–9.
- Head to head. Of their 33 meetings, Newcastle have 10 wins and Everton 18 wins, with 5 draws; goals 41–54.
What to expect
We expect Newcastle to have the upper hand: our score estimate is 2–1, so roughly 3 goals in total. The most likely result is 1–1 (11.4%). We expect an open match with goals.
Interestingly, the table points towards the Everton, while the market gives slightly better chances to the home side. That makes the match hard to read, so more cautious bets make sense.
Our goals tip: Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.51), which we rate at 64%. We put the chance of both teams scoring at 60% and of over 2.5 goals at 56%.
Key points of the prediction
- Meetings: 33; Newcastle 10 wins, 5 draws, Everton 18 wins.
- Their meetings have averaged 2.9 goals per match.
- Goals for and against in the competition: Newcastle 12–14, Everton 8–9.
- We expect roughly 3 goals; the chance of over 2.5 goals is 56%.
- Absences: Newcastle 5, Everton 1.
Alternative tip: Both teams to score – yes
Alternative: Both teams to score – yes (probability 60%, best odds 1.57). We expect roughly 3 goals, which supports this tip.
Absences
Newcastle will be without: E. Jaouen, V. Livramento, M. Fernandez-Pardo, L. Miley, W. Osula. Everton are missing: J. Grealish. Check the team news again before kick-off.
Newcastle vs Everton: odds comparison
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best odds on the market | 2.23 | 3.70 | 3.43 |
| Market average | 2.17 | 3.56 | 3.27 |
| Lowest odds | 2.10 | 3.40 | 3.13 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.24 | 1.21 | 78.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.77 | 1.71 | 56.0% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.27 | 2.17 | 44.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.77 | 2.66 | 35.7% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.57 | 1.55 | 59.8% |
| BTTS – no | 2.50 | 2.31 | 40.2% |
The odds summarise prices from several bookmakers, updated 2/11/26, 18:00. They are a guide only and may differ at a given operator. Average margin 4.8%.
Key facts
- Likely result: Newcastle 1–1 Everton, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Newcastle 12th (12 points), Everton 6th (16 points).
- Form in the competition: Newcastle 3W 2D 3L (12:14), Everton 2W 4D 2L (8:9).
- H2H: 33 matches: Newcastle 10W 5D 18L, goals 41–54.
- Absences: Newcastle 5, Everton 1.
Who will win Newcastle vs Everton?
The estimate is based on odds from several bookmakers with the margin removed. It is not a guarantee of the result.
Newcastle vs Everton: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the best odds are higher than the fair odds, the price offers value. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider below 50%.
Corners and cards tips
Correct score prediction
Newcastle vs Everton: absences and injuries
Newcastle
- E. Jaouenmuscle injury · will miss the match
- V. Livramentoknee injury · will miss the match
- M. Fernandez-Pardoillness · doubtful
- L. Mileymuscle injury · doubtful
- W. Osulaankle injury · doubtful
Everton
- J. Grealishabsence · doubtful
The list may change before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Arsenal | 10 | 9-0-1 | 15:5 | 27 |
| 2 |  Brighton | 10 | 7-1-2 | 26:7 | 22 |
| 3 |  Manchester City | 10 | 7-0-3 | 21:13 | 21 |
| 4 |  Liverpool | 10 | 5-3-2 | 14:10 | 18 |
| 5 |  Chelsea | 10 | 5-1-4 | 19:16 | 16 |
| 6 | Everton | 10 | 4-4-2 | 12:10 | 16 |
| 7 |  Bournemouth | 10 | 4-3-3 | 16:14 | 15 |
| 8 |  Brentford | 10 | 3-5-2 | 16:11 | 14 |
| 9 |  Leeds | 10 | 3-5-2 | 10:8 | 14 |
| 10 |  Aston Villa | 10 | 3-4-3 | 14:17 | 13 |
| 11 |  Tottenham | 10 | 3-3-4 | 10:11 | 12 |
| 12 | Newcastle | 10 | 3-3-4 | 13:16 | 12 |
| 13 |  Hull City | 10 | 2-5-3 | 11:11 | 11 |
| 14 |  Ipswich | 10 | 3-2-5 | 15:20 | 11 |
| 15 |  Fulham | 10 | 2-4-4 | 10:12 | 10 |
| 16 |  Nottingham Forest | 10 | 2-3-5 | 9:13 | 9 |
| 17 |  Coventry | 10 | 3-0-7 | 10:19 | 9 |
| 18 |  Manchester United | 10 | 1-5-4 | 14:19 | 8 |
| 19 |  Sunderland | 10 | 2-2-6 | 8:17 | 8 |
| 20 |  Crystal Palace | 10 | 2-1-7 | 10:24 | 7 |
Recent matches
Newcastle
Home and away
Newcastle vs Everton: last matches of both teams
Newcastle
Everton
Team comparison
The values are based on this season's matches so far, so the sample is still small.
Form in the competition
NewcastleDLWLLEvertonWWLLDHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
What is the tip for Newcastle vs Everton?
Over 2.5 goals (1.77); Newcastle or draw (1X) (1.36).
Who will win Newcastle vs Everton?
By our estimate, the probabilities are: Newcastle win 44%, draw 27%, Everton win 29%.
When and where is the match played?
2 November 2026 at 20:00, venue: St James' Park, Newcastle. Referee: J. Brooks.
Who will be missing?
Newcastle: E. Jaouen, V. Livramento, M. Fernandez-Pardo, L. Miley, W. Osula. Everton: J. Grealish. The list may change before the match.
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
By our estimate, the chance of over 2.5 goals is 56% (odds 1.77) and of under 2.5 goals 44% (odds 2.27).
Will both teams score?
We estimate the probability of both teams scoring at 60% (odds 1.57).
What is the most likely correct score?
The most likely score is 1–1 (11.4%), followed by 2–1 (9.2%) and 1–0 (8.8%).
How are your predictions made?
We derive the probabilities from the odds of several bookmakers: we remove the margin and average the prices, then calculate the expected goals and the most likely scores with a Poisson distribution. Team form, head to head and absences are on the page as context. Our predictions are for information only and do not guarantee a win.
More predictions
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