Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 0–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Newcastle host Aston Villa on 17 October 2026 · 17:30 at St James' Park (Newcastle), with J. Gillett as referee. We see the match as evenly balanced. Below you will find our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and match analysis.
Wins: Aston Villa win. Half wins (half the stake back): a draw. Loses: Aston Villa lose.
Newcastle vs Aston Villa: match analysis
Why we made this tip
- Table. Newcastle are 12th with 12 points from 10 matches (3W 3D 4L); Aston Villa are 10th with 13 points (3W 4D 3L).
What to expect
We expect an even match: our score estimate is 2–1, so roughly 3 goals in total. The most likely result is 1–1 (11.0%). We expect an open match with goals.
Our goals tip: Both teams to score (odds 1.50), which we rate at 63%. We put the chance of both teams scoring at 63% and of over 2.5 goals at 61%.
Key points of the prediction
- We expect roughly 3 goals; the chance of over 2.5 goals is 61%.
- Absences: Newcastle 0, Aston Villa 0.
Alternative tip: Over 2.5 goals
Alternative: Over 2.5 goals (probability 61%, best odds 1.58). We expect roughly 3 goals, which supports this tip.
Absences
Newcastle will be without: no absences. Aston Villa are missing: no absences. Check the team news again before kick-off.
Newcastle vs Aston Villa: odds comparison
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best odds on the market | 2.44 | 3.78 | 2.94 |
| Market average | 2.37 | 3.66 | 2.82 |
| Lowest odds | 2.30 | 3.50 | 2.70 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.17 | 1.15 | 81.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.58 | 1.57 | 60.5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.50 | 2.40 | 39.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.44 | 2.35 | 40.3% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.50 | 1.47 | 63.2% |
| BTTS – no | 2.56 | 2.53 | 36.8% |
The odds summarise prices from several bookmakers, updated 17/10/26, 13:52. They are a guide only and may differ at a given operator. Average margin 4.9%.
Key facts
- Likely result: Newcastle 1–1 Aston Villa, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Newcastle 12th (12 points), Aston Villa 10th (13 points).
- Absences: Newcastle 0, Aston Villa 0.
Who will win Newcastle vs Aston Villa?
The estimate is based on odds from several bookmakers with the margin removed. It is not a guarantee of the result.
Newcastle vs Aston Villa: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the best odds are higher than the fair odds, the price offers value. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider below 50%.
Corners and cards tips
Correct score prediction
Newcastle vs Aston Villa: absences and injuries
Newcastle
- No reported absences
Aston Villa
- No reported absences
The list may change before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Arsenal | 10 | 9-0-1 | 15:5 | 27 |
| 2 |  Brighton | 10 | 7-1-2 | 26:7 | 22 |
| 3 |  Manchester City | 10 | 7-0-3 | 21:13 | 21 |
| 4 |  Liverpool | 10 | 5-3-2 | 14:10 | 18 |
| 5 |  Chelsea | 10 | 5-1-4 | 19:16 | 16 |
| 6 |  Everton | 10 | 4-4-2 | 12:10 | 16 |
| 7 |  Bournemouth | 10 | 4-3-3 | 16:14 | 15 |
| 8 |  Brentford | 10 | 3-5-2 | 16:11 | 14 |
| 9 |  Leeds | 10 | 3-5-2 | 10:8 | 14 |
| 10 | Aston Villa | 10 | 3-4-3 | 14:17 | 13 |
| 11 |  Tottenham | 10 | 3-3-4 | 10:11 | 12 |
| 12 | Newcastle | 10 | 3-3-4 | 13:16 | 12 |
| 13 |  Hull City | 10 | 2-5-3 | 11:11 | 11 |
| 14 |  Ipswich | 10 | 3-2-5 | 15:20 | 11 |
| 15 |  Fulham | 10 | 2-4-4 | 10:12 | 10 |
| 16 |  Nottingham Forest | 10 | 2-3-5 | 9:13 | 9 |
| 17 |  Coventry | 10 | 3-0-7 | 10:19 | 9 |
| 18 |  Manchester United | 10 | 1-5-4 | 14:19 | 8 |
| 19 |  Sunderland | 10 | 2-2-6 | 8:17 | 8 |
| 20 |  Crystal Palace | 10 | 2-1-7 | 10:24 | 7 |
Recent matches
Newcastle
Home and away
Newcastle vs Aston Villa: last matches of both teams
Newcastle
Aston Villa
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Questions and answers
What is the tip for Newcastle vs Aston Villa?
Aston Villa +0.25 (Asian handicap) (1.86); Both teams to score (1.50).
Who will win Newcastle vs Aston Villa?
By our estimate, the probabilities are: Newcastle win 40%, draw 26%, Aston Villa win 34%.
When and where is the match played?
17 October 2026 at 17:30, venue: St James' Park, Newcastle. Referee: J. Gillett.
Who will be missing?
Newcastle: no absences. Aston Villa: no absences. The list may change before the match.
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
By our estimate, the chance of over 2.5 goals is 61% (odds 1.58) and of under 2.5 goals 39% (odds 2.50).
Will both teams score?
We estimate the probability of both teams scoring at 63% (odds 1.50).
What is the most likely correct score?
The most likely score is 1–1 (11.0%), followed by 2–1 (8.8%) and 1–2 (8.0%).
How are your predictions made?
We derive the probabilities from the odds of several bookmakers: we remove the margin and average the prices, then calculate the expected goals and the most likely scores with a Poisson distribution. Team form, head to head and absences are on the page as context. Our predictions are for information only and do not guarantee a win.
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