Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest prediction, tip and odds – 21 November 2026, Premier League

Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest prediction

Bournemouth host Nottingham Forest at the Vitality Stadium on 21 November 2026, with kick-off at 15:00 in Matchweek 11 of the Premier League. The numbers point one way. Bournemouth's expected goals sit at 2 against 1 for Forest, the expected total is about 3 goals, and the most likely exact score is 1-1 at 11.8%, just ahead of 1-0 at 10.2% and 2-1 at 9.4%. A home side expected to score twice against a visitor expected to score once is a shape we like, though a 1-1 score is also the single most probable outcome, and that is worth keeping in mind.

Bournemouth's attack against Forest's leaky back line

Bournemouth have scored 14 and conceded 13 in this competition, which works out at 1.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per match. Forest have scored 6 and conceded 12, or 0.7 scored and 1.3 conceded per match. Forest's problem is plainly at the other end. They have struggled to score in this competition this season, and a side that managed 0.7 a match is not going to win many games by bombing forward.

Bournemouth's defence is no fortress either. Their 13 goals conceded in this competition are not a figure to ignore, and the 5-1 defeat at Chelsea shows how quickly a match can get away from them. Still, we think their front line is good enough to make Forest's back line work hard, and that is where we expect the match to be decided.

Five matches that tell two different stories

Bournemouth's last five matches in all competitions read 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, with 8 goals scored and 6 conceded. The two defeats came against Liverpool at home, 0-1, and at Chelsea, 5-1. The wins were 2-0 against Sunderland, 3-0 at Manchester United and 2-0 against Leeds. Those are all competitions, so they are a different sample from the league table, but the picture is consistent: Bournemouth are in better shape than their 8th place alone suggests.

Forest's last five in all competitions read no wins, 1 draw and 4 defeats, with 2 goals scored and 8 conceded. The draw came at Ipswich, 1-1. The defeats were 0-1 to Coventry at home, 3-1 at Crystal Palace, 0-1 to Arsenal at home and 0-2 at Brentford. Two scored goals in five matches is a poor return whatever the competition. We would not expect a side in that state to take anything at the Vitality without a major change in its attacking output.

No meetings on record, no injury news

We have no earlier meeting between these two sides on record, so there is no head-to-head pattern to lean on, and we are not going to invent one. Neither club has any absence reported, which means both teams can be assessed at full strength on the information we have.

Our main tip and why we trust it

The bookmakers make Bournemouth a 46% chance to win at best odds of 2.10, with a draw at 27% (best odds 3.78) and a Forest win at 27% (best odds 3.68). The margin on the match result is 6.0%. Those are the bookmakers' expectations, not a share of past results, and we use them as a guide to the price rather than as proof.

Our main tip is Bournemouth +0 (Asian handicap) at odds 1.55, with a market chance of 64%. At +0 a Bournemouth win wins, a draw returns the stake and a defeat loses. On the likeliest scores, 1-0, 2-1 and 2-0 win, 1-1 returns the stake, and 0-1 and 1-2 lose. Four reasons back it:

• Bournemouth have won 3 of their last 5 matches in all competitions.
• Nottingham Forest have won none of their last 5 matches.
• Bournemouth are 8th in this competition with 12 points.
• Bournemouth have 2 home wins in this competition.

We would not back Bournemouth to win outright at 2.10 with the same confidence, because a draw at 3.78 is still very much in play. The +0 line turns that draw into a stake returned rather than a loss, and that is the reason we prefer it. The one thing it cannot protect against is a Forest win, which is why we would not stake more on this than a normal bet.

Our second tip is both teams to score at odds 1.70, with a market chance of 56%. It wins on 1-1, 2-1 and 1-2 and loses on 1-0, 2-0 and 0-1. Bournemouth have failed to score in only 1 of their last 5 matches, and the expected total of about 3 goals gives it a fair base. Forest have scored in 2 of their last 5, so the other half of the bet is less certain. We rate it below the main tip, but we are happy to have it in the mix.

Other bets we would consider

• Bournemouth or draw (1X) at odds 1.33 (chance 73%). This is the safer route if you like Bournemouth but do not want to rely on a win.
• Over 1.5 goals at odds 1.27 (chance 76%). The bookmakers expect at least two goals here, and on the figures above we see no reason to argue.
• Bournemouth +0.5 (Asian handicap) at odds 1.34 (chance 73%). It wins unless Bournemouth lose by 1 or more, so a draw is a winning result for this bet.
• Under 3.5 goals at odds 1.40 (chance 68%). The expected total is about 3, which makes this a sensible partner to the main tip.

Our likeliest score is 1-1

We think Bournemouth have the better of this match, and the 1-1 scoreline is the one we see most often in the numbers. A 1-1 result returns the stake on our main tip and wins the second tip, so it is a score that serves both of our selections in part. Our most likely score is 1-1, at a probability of 11.8%.