Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 2–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Bournemouth against Leeds: 31 October 2026 · 15:00 at Vitality Stadium (Bournemouth), referee M. Salisbury. We expect a close match. Here you will find our tip, result probabilities, absences and analysis.
Bournemouth vs Leeds: match analysis
Why we made this tip
- Table. Bournemouth are 7th with 15 points from 10 matches (4W 3D 3L); Leeds are 9th with 14 points (3W 5D 2L).
- Attack and defence. Bournemouth average 1.5 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per match in the competition; Leeds score 1.1 and concede 0.8.
- Form in the competition. Bournemouth: 2W 3D 3L, goals 12–13; Leeds: 2W 5D 1L, goals 9–6.
- Head to head. Of their 9 meetings, Bournemouth have 3 wins and Leeds 4 wins, with 2 draws; goals 19–16.
What to expect
We expect Bournemouth to have the upper hand: our score estimate is 2–1, so roughly 3 goals in total. The most likely result is 1–1 (12.2%). We expect a fairly even contest.
Our goals tip: Both teams to score (odds 1.70), which we rate at 55%. We put the chance of both teams scoring at 55% and of over 2.5 goals at 50%.
Key points of the prediction
- Meetings: 9; Bournemouth 3 wins, 2 draws, Leeds 4 wins.
- Their meetings have averaged 3.9 goals per match.
- Goals for and against in the competition: Bournemouth 12–13, Leeds 9–6.
- We expect roughly 3 goals; the chance of over 2.5 goals is 50%.
- Absences: Bournemouth 3, Leeds 4.
Alternative tip: Over 2.5 goals
Alternative: Over 2.5 goals (probability 50%, best odds 1.95). We expect roughly 3 goals, which supports this tip.
Absences
Bournemouth will be without: J. Araujo, A. Scott, A. Toth. Leeds are missing: M. Joseph, J. Rodon, D. James, A. Stach. Check the team news again before kick-off.
Bournemouth vs Leeds: odds comparison
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best odds on the market | 2.17 | 3.56 | 3.70 |
| Market average | 2.12 | 3.38 | 3.51 |
| Lowest odds | 2.05 | 3.08 | 3.01 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.30 | 1.28 | 74.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.95 | 1.90 | 50.4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.00 | 1.93 | 49.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.40 | 3.20 | 29.6% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.70 | 1.68 | 55.3% |
| BTTS – no | 2.20 | 2.08 | 44.7% |
The odds summarise prices from several bookmakers, updated 31/10/26, 09:22. They are a guide only and may differ at a given operator. Average margin 5.4%.
Key facts
- Likely result: Bournemouth 1–1 Leeds, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Bournemouth 7th (15 points), Leeds 9th (14 points).
- Form in the competition: Bournemouth 2W 3D 3L (12:13), Leeds 2W 5D 1L (9:6).
- H2H: 9 matches: Bournemouth 3W 2D 4L, goals 19–16.
- Absences: Bournemouth 3, Leeds 4.
Who will win Bournemouth vs Leeds?
The estimate is based on odds from several bookmakers with the margin removed. It is not a guarantee of the result.
Bournemouth vs Leeds: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the best odds are higher than the fair odds, the price offers value. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider below 50%.
Corners and cards tips
Correct score prediction
Bournemouth vs Leeds: absences and injuries
Bournemouth
- J. Araujothigh injury · will miss the match
- A. Scottthigh injury · will miss the match
- A. Tothmuscle injury · will miss the match
Leeds
- M. Josephknee injury · will miss the match
- J. Rodonmuscle injury · will miss the match
- D. Jamesback injury · doubtful
- A. Stachfoot injury · doubtful
The list may change before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Arsenal | 10 | 9-0-1 | 15:5 | 27 |
| 2 |  Brighton | 10 | 7-1-2 | 26:7 | 22 |
| 3 |  Manchester City | 10 | 7-0-3 | 21:13 | 21 |
| 4 |  Liverpool | 10 | 5-3-2 | 14:10 | 18 |
| 5 |  Chelsea | 10 | 5-1-4 | 19:16 | 16 |
| 6 |  Everton | 10 | 4-4-2 | 12:10 | 16 |
| 7 | Bournemouth | 10 | 4-3-3 | 16:14 | 15 |
| 8 |  Brentford | 10 | 3-5-2 | 16:11 | 14 |
| 9 | Leeds | 10 | 3-5-2 | 10:8 | 14 |
| 10 |  Aston Villa | 10 | 3-4-3 | 14:17 | 13 |
| 11 |  Tottenham | 10 | 3-3-4 | 10:11 | 12 |
| 12 |  Newcastle | 10 | 3-3-4 | 13:16 | 12 |
| 13 |  Hull City | 10 | 2-5-3 | 11:11 | 11 |
| 14 |  Ipswich | 10 | 3-2-5 | 15:20 | 11 |
| 15 |  Fulham | 10 | 2-4-4 | 10:12 | 10 |
| 16 |  Nottingham Forest | 10 | 2-3-5 | 9:13 | 9 |
| 17 |  Coventry | 10 | 3-0-7 | 10:19 | 9 |
| 18 |  Manchester United | 10 | 1-5-4 | 14:19 | 8 |
| 19 |  Sunderland | 10 | 2-2-6 | 8:17 | 8 |
| 20 |  Crystal Palace | 10 | 2-1-7 | 10:24 | 7 |
Recent matches
Bournemouth
Home and away
Bournemouth vs Leeds: last matches of both teams
Bournemouth
Leeds
Team comparison
The values are based on this season's matches so far, so the sample is still small.
Form in the competition
BournemouthWWWWLLeedsWLDDLHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
What is the tip for Bournemouth vs Leeds?
Over 2.5 goals (1.95); Bournemouth or draw (1X) (1.32).
Who will win Bournemouth vs Leeds?
By our estimate, the probabilities are: Bournemouth win 45%, draw 28%, Leeds win 27%.
When and where is the match played?
31 October 2026 at 15:00, venue: Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth. Referee: M. Salisbury.
Who will be missing?
Bournemouth: J. Araujo, A. Scott, A. Toth. Leeds: M. Joseph, J. Rodon, D. James, A. Stach. The list may change before the match.
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
By our estimate, the chance of over 2.5 goals is 50% (odds 1.95) and of under 2.5 goals 50% (odds 2.00).
Will both teams score?
We estimate the probability of both teams scoring at 55% (odds 1.70).
What is the most likely correct score?
The most likely score is 1–1 (12.2%), followed by 1–0 (10.6%) and 2–1 (9.1%).
How are your predictions made?
We derive the probabilities from the odds of several bookmakers: we remove the margin and average the prices, then calculate the expected goals and the most likely scores with a Poisson distribution. Team form, head to head and absences are on the page as context. Our predictions are for information only and do not guarantee a win.
More predictions
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