Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 2–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Bournemouth host Sunderland on 18 October 2026 · 14:00 at Vitality Stadium (Bournemouth), with C. Pawson as referee. We see Bournemouth (46%) as the favourites. Below you will find our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and match analysis.
Wins: Sunderland win, a draw. Loses: Sunderland lose.
Bournemouth vs Sunderland: match analysis
Why we made this tip
- Table. Bournemouth are 7th with 15 points from 10 matches (4W 3D 3L); Sunderland are 19th with 8 points (2W 2D 6L).
What to expect
We expect an even match: our score estimate is 1–1, so roughly 2 goals in total. The most likely result is 1–1 (12.5%). We expect a fairly even contest.
Our goals tip: Under 2.5 goals (odds 1.81), which we rate at 54%. We put the chance of both teams scoring at 51% and of over 2.5 goals at 46%.
Key points of the prediction
- We expect roughly 2 goals; the chance of over 2.5 goals is 46%.
- Absences: Bournemouth 0, Sunderland 0.
Alternative tip: Both teams to score – yes
Alternative: Both teams to score – yes (probability 51%, best odds 1.85). We expect roughly 2 goals, which supports this tip.
Absences
Bournemouth will be without: no absences. Sunderland are missing: no absences. Check the team news again before kick-off.
Bournemouth vs Sunderland: odds comparison
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best odds on the market | 2.14 | 3.43 | 4.15 |
| Market average | 2.08 | 3.35 | 3.78 |
| Lowest odds | 2.04 | 3.25 | 3.30 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.38 | 1.32 | 71.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.22 | 2.08 | 46.1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.81 | 1.77 | 53.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.60 | 3.54 | 26.6% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.85 | 1.80 | 51.5% |
| BTTS – no | 2.00 | 1.91 | 48.5% |
The odds summarise prices from several bookmakers, updated 18/10/26, 12:00. They are a guide only and may differ at a given operator. Average margin 4.7%.
Key facts
- Likely result: Bournemouth 1–1 Sunderland, roughly 2 goals in total.
- Table: Bournemouth 7th (15 points), Sunderland 19th (8 points).
- Absences: Bournemouth 0, Sunderland 0.
Who will win Bournemouth vs Sunderland?
The estimate is based on odds from several bookmakers with the margin removed. It is not a guarantee of the result.
Bournemouth vs Sunderland: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the best odds are higher than the fair odds, the price offers value. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider below 50%.
Corners and cards tips
Correct score prediction
Bournemouth vs Sunderland: absences and injuries
Bournemouth
- No reported absences
Sunderland
- No reported absences
The list may change before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Arsenal | 10 | 9-0-1 | 15:5 | 27 |
| 2 |  Brighton | 10 | 7-1-2 | 26:7 | 22 |
| 3 |  Manchester City | 10 | 7-0-3 | 21:13 | 21 |
| 4 |  Liverpool | 10 | 5-3-2 | 14:10 | 18 |
| 5 |  Chelsea | 10 | 5-1-4 | 19:16 | 16 |
| 6 |  Everton | 10 | 4-4-2 | 12:10 | 16 |
| 7 | Bournemouth | 10 | 4-3-3 | 16:14 | 15 |
| 8 |  Brentford | 10 | 3-5-2 | 16:11 | 14 |
| 9 |  Leeds | 10 | 3-5-2 | 10:8 | 14 |
| 10 |  Aston Villa | 10 | 3-4-3 | 14:17 | 13 |
| 11 |  Tottenham | 10 | 3-3-4 | 10:11 | 12 |
| 12 |  Newcastle | 10 | 3-3-4 | 13:16 | 12 |
| 13 |  Hull City | 10 | 2-5-3 | 11:11 | 11 |
| 14 |  Ipswich | 10 | 3-2-5 | 15:20 | 11 |
| 15 |  Fulham | 10 | 2-4-4 | 10:12 | 10 |
| 16 |  Nottingham Forest | 10 | 2-3-5 | 9:13 | 9 |
| 17 |  Coventry | 10 | 3-0-7 | 10:19 | 9 |
| 18 |  Manchester United | 10 | 1-5-4 | 14:19 | 8 |
| 19 | Sunderland | 10 | 2-2-6 | 8:17 | 8 |
| 20 |  Crystal Palace | 10 | 2-1-7 | 10:24 | 7 |
Recent matches
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Bournemouth vs Sunderland: last matches of both teams
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Questions and answers
What is the tip for Bournemouth vs Sunderland?
Sunderland +0.5 (Asian handicap) (1.88); Under 2.5 goals (1.81).
Who will win Bournemouth vs Sunderland?
By our estimate, the probabilities are: Bournemouth win 46%, draw 29%, Sunderland win 25%.
When and where is the match played?
18 October 2026 at 14:00, venue: Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth. Referee: C. Pawson.
Who will be missing?
Bournemouth: no absences. Sunderland: no absences. The list may change before the match.
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
By our estimate, the chance of over 2.5 goals is 46% (odds 2.22) and of under 2.5 goals 54% (odds 1.81).
Will both teams score?
We estimate the probability of both teams scoring at 51% (odds 1.85).
What is the most likely correct score?
The most likely score is 1–1 (12.5%), followed by 1–0 (11.9%) and 2–1 (9.1%).
How are your predictions made?
We derive the probabilities from the odds of several bookmakers: we remove the margin and average the prices, then calculate the expected goals and the most likely scores with a Poisson distribution. Team form, head to head and absences are on the page as context. Our predictions are for information only and do not guarantee a win.
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