Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 0–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Sunderland host Leeds on 25 October 2026 · 16:30 at Stadium of Light (Sunderland), with S. Attwell as referee. We see the match as evenly balanced. Below you will find our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and match analysis.
Wins: Leeds win. Stake back: a draw. Loses: Leeds lose.
Sunderland vs Leeds: match analysis
Why we made this tip
- Table. Sunderland are 19th with 8 points from 10 matches (2W 2D 6L); Leeds are 9th with 14 points (3W 5D 2L).
- Attack and defence. Sunderland average 0.9 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per match in the competition; Leeds score 1.3 and concede 0.9.
- Form in the competition. Sunderland: 1W 1D 5L, goals 6–14; Leeds: 2W 4D 1L, goals 9–6.
- Head to head. Of their 11 meetings, Sunderland have 3 wins and Leeds 3 wins, with 5 draws; goals 8–9.
What to expect
We expect an even match: our score estimate is 1–1, so roughly 2 goals in total. The most likely result is 1–1 (13.0%). We expect a fairly even contest.
Our goals tip: Under 2.5 goals (odds 1.74), which we rate at 57%. We put the chance of both teams scoring at 51% and of over 2.5 goals at 43%.
Key points of the prediction
- Meetings: 11; Sunderland 3 wins, 5 draws, Leeds 3 wins.
- Their meetings have averaged 1.5 goals per match.
- Goals for and against in the competition: Sunderland 6–14, Leeds 9–6.
- We expect roughly 2 goals; the chance of over 2.5 goals is 43%.
- Absences: Sunderland 5, Leeds 5.
Alternative tip: Both teams to score – yes
Alternative: Both teams to score – yes (probability 51%, best odds 1.91). We expect roughly 2 goals, which supports this tip.
Absences
Sunderland will be without: D. Ballard, K. Danso, R. Mundle, W. Isidor, T. Meunier. Leeds are missing: M. Joseph, J. Rodon, D. Calvert-Lewin, N. Okafor, A. Stach. Check the team news again before kick-off.
Sunderland vs Leeds: odds comparison
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best odds on the market | 3.02 | 3.25 | 2.67 |
| Market average | 2.95 | 3.13 | 2.59 |
| Lowest odds | 2.90 | 3.00 | 2.50 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.42 | 1.38 | 68.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.27 | 2.21 | 43.2% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.74 | 1.68 | 56.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 4.20 | 4.01 | 23.5% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.91 | 1.85 | 50.6% |
| BTTS – no | 1.95 | 1.89 | 49.4% |
The odds summarise prices from several bookmakers, updated 25/10/26, 13:09. They are a guide only and may differ at a given operator. Average margin 4.6%.
Key facts
- Likely result: Sunderland 1–1 Leeds, roughly 2 goals in total.
- Table: Sunderland 19th (8 points), Leeds 9th (14 points).
- Form in the competition: Sunderland 1W 1D 5L (6:14), Leeds 2W 4D 1L (9:6).
- H2H: 11 matches: Sunderland 3W 5D 3L, goals 8–9.
- Absences: Sunderland 5, Leeds 5.
Who will win Sunderland vs Leeds?
The estimate is based on odds from several bookmakers with the margin removed. It is not a guarantee of the result.
Sunderland vs Leeds: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the best odds are higher than the fair odds, the price offers value. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider below 50%.
Corners and cards tips
Correct score prediction
Sunderland vs Leeds: absences and injuries
Sunderland
- D. Ballardmuscle injury · will miss the match
- K. Dansored card · will miss the match
- R. Mundleknee injury · will miss the match
- W. Isidorinjury · doubtful
- T. Meuniermuscle injury · doubtful
Leeds
- M. Josephknee injury · will miss the match
- J. Rodonmuscle injury · will miss the match
- D. Calvert-Lewinfoot injury · doubtful
- N. Okaforgroin injury · doubtful
- A. Stachgroin injury · doubtful
The list may change before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Arsenal | 10 | 9-0-1 | 15:5 | 27 |
| 2 |  Brighton | 10 | 7-1-2 | 26:7 | 22 |
| 3 |  Manchester City | 10 | 7-0-3 | 21:13 | 21 |
| 4 |  Liverpool | 10 | 5-3-2 | 14:10 | 18 |
| 5 |  Chelsea | 10 | 5-1-4 | 19:16 | 16 |
| 6 |  Everton | 10 | 4-4-2 | 12:10 | 16 |
| 7 |  Bournemouth | 10 | 4-3-3 | 16:14 | 15 |
| 8 |  Brentford | 10 | 3-5-2 | 16:11 | 14 |
| 9 | Leeds | 10 | 3-5-2 | 10:8 | 14 |
| 10 |  Aston Villa | 10 | 3-4-3 | 14:17 | 13 |
| 11 |  Tottenham | 10 | 3-3-4 | 10:11 | 12 |
| 12 |  Newcastle | 10 | 3-3-4 | 13:16 | 12 |
| 13 |  Hull City | 10 | 2-5-3 | 11:11 | 11 |
| 14 |  Ipswich | 10 | 3-2-5 | 15:20 | 11 |
| 15 |  Fulham | 10 | 2-4-4 | 10:12 | 10 |
| 16 |  Nottingham Forest | 10 | 2-3-5 | 9:13 | 9 |
| 17 |  Coventry | 10 | 3-0-7 | 10:19 | 9 |
| 18 |  Manchester United | 10 | 1-5-4 | 14:19 | 8 |
| 19 | Sunderland | 10 | 2-2-6 | 8:17 | 8 |
| 20 |  Crystal Palace | 10 | 2-1-7 | 10:24 | 7 |
Recent matches
Sunderland
Home and away
Sunderland vs Leeds: last matches of both teams
Sunderland
Leeds
Team comparison
The values are based on this season's matches so far, so the sample is still small.
Form in the competition
SunderlandWLDLLLeedsWLDDLHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
What is the tip for Sunderland vs Leeds?
Leeds +0 (Asian handicap) (1.87); Under 2.5 goals (1.74).
Who will win Sunderland vs Leeds?
By our estimate, the probabilities are: Sunderland win 32%, draw 31%, Leeds win 37%.
When and where is the match played?
25 October 2026 at 16:30, venue: Stadium of Light, Sunderland. Referee: S. Attwell.
Who will be missing?
Sunderland: D. Ballard, K. Danso, R. Mundle, W. Isidor, T. Meunier. Leeds: M. Joseph, J. Rodon, D. Calvert-Lewin, N. Okafor, A. Stach. The list may change before the match.
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
By our estimate, the chance of over 2.5 goals is 43% (odds 2.27) and of under 2.5 goals 57% (odds 1.74).
Will both teams score?
We estimate the probability of both teams scoring at 51% (odds 1.91).
What is the most likely correct score?
The most likely score is 1–1 (13.0%), followed by 0–1 (11.3%) and 1–0 (10.4%).
How are your predictions made?
We derive the probabilities from the odds of several bookmakers: we remove the margin and average the prices, then calculate the expected goals and the most likely scores with a Poisson distribution. Team form, head to head and absences are on the page as context. Our predictions are for information only and do not guarantee a win.
More predictions
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