Bet with Freshbet →Our tip for Aston Villa vs Sunderland (Premier League, 21 November 2026, 15:00): Aston Villa -0.75 (Asian handicap) at odds of 1.97. Second tip: Both teams to score at odds of 1.73. The bookmakers' odds give Aston Villa 54%, the draw 25% and Sunderland 21%. The most likely score is 1–1.
Wins: Aston Villa win by 2 or more. Half wins (half the stake back): Aston Villa win by 1. Loses: a draw, Aston Villa lose.
Aston Villa vs Sunderland prediction
Aston Villa host Sunderland at Villa Park on 21 November 2026, with kick-off at 15:00, in Matchweek 11 of the Premier League. The home side arrive in a far better place than their visitors, and we think the bookmakers have that part right. The question is how much of the margin Villa can deliver, and that is where our tip lives.
Key facts
- Likely result: Aston Villa 1–1 Sunderland, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Aston Villa 10th (13 points), Sunderland 19th (8 points).
- Form in the competition: Aston Villa 3W 4D 3L (14:17), Sunderland 2W 2D 6L (8:17).
- Absences: Aston Villa 0, Sunderland 0.
Aston Villa's home mark at Villa Park
Villa sit 10th in the Premier League table with 12 points from 9 matches, having won 3, drawn 3 and lost 3, with 10 goals scored and 13 conceded. At home the picture is less comfortable: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats, with 6 goals scored and 7 conceded. That home record is the weak spot we keep returning to.
Their last five matches in all competitions are more encouraging. Villa won 3 of them, drew 2 and lost none, with 9 goals scored and 6 conceded. The run includes a 2-1 home win over Manchester City and a 1-0 away win at Newcastle, while the 2-2 home draw with Brentford and the 1-1 home draw with Fulham show they still drop points at Villa Park. The table covers this competition only, while the run covers all competitions, so the two tell slightly different stories.
Who will win Aston Villa vs Sunderland?
The estimate is based on odds from several bookmakers with the margin removed. It is not a guarantee of the result.
Sunderland's away struggles and recent slide
Sunderland are 20th with 5 points from 9 Premier League matches: 1 win, 2 draws and 6 defeats, with 7 goals scored and 17 conceded. Away from home they have won none, drawn 1 and lost 4, scoring 6 and conceding 13. Those are not numbers that suggest a side about to travel well.
Their last five in all competitions brought no wins, 1 draw and 4 defeats, with 4 goals scored and 12 conceded. The most recent was a 3-1 defeat at Coventry, and the run also features a 5-3 defeat at Manchester City. Across this competition they average 0.8 goals scored per match and concede 1.9, against Villa's 1.1 scored and 1.4 conceded. We would not back a side with that scoring rate to get much out of a trip to Birmingham.
No earlier meeting and no team news
We have no record of an earlier meeting between these two sides, so there is no head-to-head pattern to lean on in either direction. Neither club has any absences reported, which means we are judging both teams at full strength on the form and table data alone. That keeps the decision simple, even if it removes one possible angle.
Team comparison
The values are based on this season's matches so far, so the sample is still small.
Form in the competition
Aston VillaDDWWD
SunderlandWLDLLAston Villa vs Sunderland tip: Aston Villa -0.75
Our main tip is Aston Villa -0.75 on the Asian handicap at odds of 1.97. The bookmakers give it a chance of 50%, so the price is fair rather than generous. We still like it, because the handicap is split in a way that suits the most likely outcomes. Half the stake goes on Aston Villa -1, which needs a win by two or more, and a win by exactly one returns that half. The other half goes on Aston Villa -0.5, which needs any win.
- Aston Villa won 3 of their last 5 matches in all competitions.
- Aston Villa have lost none of their last 5 matches in all competitions.
- Sunderland have won none of their last 5 matches in all competitions.
- Aston Villa are 10th in this competition, while Sunderland are 20th.
The settlement lines are clear. A 2-0 win takes the full stake, and a 3-1 win does too. A 1-0 or a 2-1 win returns half the stake, and a 1-1 draw or a 0-1 defeat loses. That is why we would not back Villa to win by a single goal without the cover of the split. The chance of a draw in the market is 25%.
Our second tip is Both teams to score at odds of 1.70, a 55% chance in the market. Both teams scored in 4 of Aston Villa's last 5 matches in all competitions, and Villa failed to score in none of them; the expected total is about 3 goals. It wins on 1-1, 2-1 and 3-1, and loses on 1-0, 2-0 and 0-1. We see it as the sensible second angle on the same game, not a replacement for the main tip.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Arsenal | 10 | 9-0-1 | 15:5 | 27 |
| 2 |  Brighton | 10 | 7-1-2 | 26:7 | 22 |
| 3 |  Manchester City | 10 | 7-0-3 | 21:13 | 21 |
| 4 |  Liverpool | 10 | 5-3-2 | 14:10 | 18 |
| 5 |  Chelsea | 10 | 5-1-4 | 19:16 | 16 |
| 6 |  Everton | 10 | 4-4-2 | 12:10 | 16 |
| 7 |  Bournemouth | 10 | 4-3-3 | 16:14 | 15 |
| 8 |  Brentford | 10 | 3-5-2 | 16:11 | 14 |
| 9 |  Leeds | 10 | 3-5-2 | 10:8 | 14 |
| 10 | Aston Villa | 10 | 3-4-3 | 14:17 | 13 |
| 11 |  Tottenham | 10 | 3-3-4 | 10:11 | 12 |
| 12 |  Newcastle | 10 | 3-3-4 | 13:16 | 12 |
| 13 |  Hull City | 10 | 2-5-3 | 11:11 | 11 |
| 14 |  Ipswich | 10 | 3-2-5 | 15:20 | 11 |
| 15 |  Fulham | 10 | 2-4-4 | 10:12 | 10 |
| 16 |  Nottingham Forest | 10 | 2-3-5 | 9:13 | 9 |
| 17 |  Coventry | 10 | 3-0-7 | 10:19 | 9 |
| 18 |  Manchester United | 10 | 1-5-4 | 14:19 | 8 |
| 19 | Sunderland | 10 | 2-2-6 | 8:17 | 8 |
| 20 |  Crystal Palace | 10 | 2-1-7 | 10:24 | 7 |
Recent matches
Aston Villa
Home and away
Aston Villa vs Sunderland: last matches of both teams
Aston Villa
Sunderland
Other prices worth a look
- Aston Villa or draw (1X) at 1.23, with a chance of 79%. It is the safest way to back Villa without relying on a margin, though we see little value in it.
- Sunderland +1.75 at 1.30, with a chance of 73%. Half the stake goes on Sunderland +1.5 and half on Sunderland +2, so it works as a cushion against a heavy Villa win.
- Under 3.5 goals at 1.44, with a chance of 67%. The market already expects a low total, so the price offers little beyond that.
- Over 2.5 goals at 1.82, with a chance of 54%. With the expected total around 3 goals it is close to a coin toss, and we would pass.
The market expects Villa to win 54% of the time and Sunderland 21%, and the bookmaker margin on the result is 6.1%. Our view is that the form and the table point the same way, so we are happy to back Villa at 1.97. Sunderland have to produce something they have not shown in this competition, and we would not bet on that.
Aston Villa vs Sunderland: odds comparison
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best odds on the market | 1.78 | 4.16 | 4.75 |
| Market average | 1.73 | 3.84 | 4.50 |
| Lowest odds | 1.70 | 3.36 | 3.96 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.26 | 1.22 | 76.8% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.82 | 1.76 | 54.0% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.15 | 2.07 | 46.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.92 | 2.80 | 33.6% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.73 | 1.70 | 54.7% |
| BTTS – no | 2.10 | 2.05 | 45.3% |
The odds summarise prices from several bookmakers, updated 8/11/26, 12:52. They are a guide only and may differ at a given operator. Average margin 6.2%.
Aston Villa vs Sunderland: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the best odds are higher than the fair odds, the price offers value. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider below 50%.
Correct score prediction
Aston Villa vs Sunderland: absences and injuries
Aston Villa
- No reported absences
Sunderland
- No reported absences
The list may change before kick-off.
Returns calculator
Questions and answers
What is the tip for Aston Villa vs Sunderland?
Aston Villa -0.75 (Asian handicap) (1.97); Both teams to score (1.73).
Who will win Aston Villa vs Sunderland?
By our estimate, the probabilities are: Aston Villa win 54%, draw 25%, Sunderland win 21%.
When and where is the match played?
21 November 2026 at 15:00, venue: Villa Park, Birmingham.
Who will be missing?
Aston Villa: no absences. Sunderland: no absences. The list may change before the match.
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
By our estimate, the chance of over 2.5 goals is 54% (odds 1.82) and of under 2.5 goals 46% (odds 2.15).
Will both teams score?
We estimate the probability of both teams scoring at 55% (odds 1.73).
What is the most likely correct score?
The most likely score is 1–1 (10.9%), followed by 1–0 (10.4%) and 2–1 (9.8%).
How are your predictions made?
We derive the probabilities from the odds of several bookmakers: we remove the margin and average the prices, then calculate the expected goals and the most likely scores with a Poisson distribution. Team form, head to head and absences are on the page as context. Our predictions are for information only and do not guarantee a win.
More predictions
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