Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 0–3. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Manchester United v Bournemouth kicks off on 25 October 2026 · 14:00 at Old Trafford (Manchester), refereed by J. Gillett. In our view it is an even contest. Further down you will find the tip, the chances of each result, absences and a breakdown of the match.
Manchester United vs Bournemouth: match analysis
Why we made this tip
- Table. Manchester United are 18th with 8 points from 10 matches (1W 5D 4L); Bournemouth are 7th with 15 points (4W 3D 3L).
- Attack and defence. Manchester United average 1.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per match in the competition; Bournemouth score 1.3 and concede 1.9.
- Form in the competition. Manchester United: 1W 4D 2L, goals 10–10; Bournemouth: 1W 3D 3L, goals 9–13.
- Head to head. Of their 20 meetings, Manchester United have 10 wins and Bournemouth 5 wins, with 5 draws; goals 39–29.
What to expect
We expect an even match: our score estimate is 1–1, so roughly 2 goals in total. The most likely result is 1–1 (12.1%). We expect an open match with goals.
Interestingly, the table points towards the Bournemouth, while the market gives slightly better chances to the home side. That makes the match hard to read, so more cautious bets make sense.
Our goals tip: Both teams to score (odds 1.62), which we rate at 58%. We put the chance of both teams scoring at 58% and of over 2.5 goals at 53%.
Key points of the prediction
- Meetings: 20; Manchester United 10 wins, 5 draws, Bournemouth 5 wins.
- Their meetings have averaged 3.4 goals per match.
- Goals for and against in the competition: Manchester United 10–10, Bournemouth 9–13.
- We expect roughly 2 goals; the chance of over 2.5 goals is 53%.
- Absences: Manchester United 7, Bournemouth 5.
Alternative tip: Over 2.5 goals
Alternative: Over 2.5 goals (probability 53%, best odds 1.86). We expect roughly 2 goals, which supports this tip.
Absences
Manchester United will be without: P. Dorgu, K. Mainoo, B. Sesko, L. Shaw, M. Ugarte, L. Martinez, M. Rashford. Bournemouth are missing: J. Araujo, A. Scott, A. Toth, E. J. Kroupi, V. Milosavljevic. Check the team news again before kick-off.
Manchester United vs Bournemouth: odds comparison
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best odds on the market | 2.49 | 3.55 | 3.08 |
| Market average | 2.41 | 3.45 | 2.94 |
| Lowest odds | 2.30 | 3.30 | 2.80 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.27 | 1.25 | 75.9% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.86 | 1.80 | 53.2% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.10 | 2.04 | 46.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.00 | 2.88 | 32.9% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.62 | 1.61 | 57.9% |
| BTTS – no | 2.30 | 2.21 | 42.1% |
The odds summarise prices from several bookmakers, updated 25/10/26, 13:09. They are a guide only and may differ at a given operator. Average margin 4.5%.
Key facts
- Likely result: Manchester United 1–1 Bournemouth, roughly 2 goals in total.
- Table: Manchester United 18th (8 points), Bournemouth 7th (15 points).
- Form in the competition: Manchester United 1W 4D 2L (10:10), Bournemouth 1W 3D 3L (9:13).
- H2H: 20 matches: Manchester United 10W 5D 5L, goals 39–29.
- Absences: Manchester United 7, Bournemouth 5.
Who will win Manchester United vs Bournemouth?
The estimate is based on odds from several bookmakers with the margin removed. It is not a guarantee of the result.
Manchester United vs Bournemouth: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the best odds are higher than the fair odds, the price offers value. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider below 50%.
Corners and cards tips
Correct score prediction
Manchester United vs Bournemouth: absences and injuries
Manchester United
- P. Dorguhamstring injury · will miss the match
- K. Mainooinjury · will miss the match
- B. Seskoabsence · will miss the match
- L. Shawinjury · will miss the match
- M. Ugarteknee injury · will miss the match
- L. Martinezmuscle injury · doubtful
- M. Rashfordhip injury · doubtful
Bournemouth
- J. Araujothigh injury · will miss the match
- A. Scottthigh injury · will miss the match
- A. Tothmuscle injury · will miss the match
- E. J. Kroupifoot injury · doubtful
- V. Milosavljevicabsence · doubtful
The list may change before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Arsenal | 10 | 9-0-1 | 15:5 | 27 |
| 2 |  Brighton | 10 | 7-1-2 | 26:7 | 22 |
| 3 |  Manchester City | 10 | 7-0-3 | 21:13 | 21 |
| 4 |  Liverpool | 10 | 5-3-2 | 14:10 | 18 |
| 5 |  Chelsea | 10 | 5-1-4 | 19:16 | 16 |
| 6 |  Everton | 10 | 4-4-2 | 12:10 | 16 |
| 7 | Bournemouth | 10 | 4-3-3 | 16:14 | 15 |
| 8 |  Brentford | 10 | 3-5-2 | 16:11 | 14 |
| 9 |  Leeds | 10 | 3-5-2 | 10:8 | 14 |
| 10 |  Aston Villa | 10 | 3-4-3 | 14:17 | 13 |
| 11 |  Tottenham | 10 | 3-3-4 | 10:11 | 12 |
| 12 |  Newcastle | 10 | 3-3-4 | 13:16 | 12 |
| 13 |  Hull City | 10 | 2-5-3 | 11:11 | 11 |
| 14 |  Ipswich | 10 | 3-2-5 | 15:20 | 11 |
| 15 |  Fulham | 10 | 2-4-4 | 10:12 | 10 |
| 16 |  Nottingham Forest | 10 | 2-3-5 | 9:13 | 9 |
| 17 |  Coventry | 10 | 3-0-7 | 10:19 | 9 |
| 18 | Manchester United | 10 | 1-5-4 | 14:19 | 8 |
| 19 |  Sunderland | 10 | 2-2-6 | 8:17 | 8 |
| 20 |  Crystal Palace | 10 | 2-1-7 | 10:24 | 7 |
Recent matches
Manchester United
Home and away
Manchester United vs Bournemouth: last matches of both teams
Manchester United
Bournemouth
Team comparison
The values are based on this season's matches so far, so the sample is still small.
Form in the competition
Manchester UnitedDLLDDBournemouthWWWWLHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
What is the tip for Manchester United vs Bournemouth?
Over 2.5 goals (1.86); Manchester United or draw (1X) (1.45).
Who will win Manchester United vs Bournemouth?
By our estimate, the probabilities are: Manchester United win 40%, draw 28%, Bournemouth win 33%.
When and where is the match played?
25 October 2026 at 14:00, venue: Old Trafford, Manchester. Referee: J. Gillett.
Who will be missing?
Manchester United: P. Dorgu, K. Mainoo, B. Sesko, L. Shaw, M. Ugarte, L. Martinez, M. Rashford. Bournemouth: J. Araujo, A. Scott, A. Toth, E. J. Kroupi, V. Milosavljevic. The list may change before the match.
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
By our estimate, the chance of over 2.5 goals is 53% (odds 1.86) and of under 2.5 goals 47% (odds 2.10).
Will both teams score?
We estimate the probability of both teams scoring at 58% (odds 1.62).
What is the most likely correct score?
The most likely score is 1–1 (12.1%), followed by 1–0 (9.3%) and 2–1 (8.7%).
How are your predictions made?
We derive the probabilities from the odds of several bookmakers: we remove the margin and average the prices, then calculate the expected goals and the most likely scores with a Poisson distribution. Team form, head to head and absences are on the page as context. Our predictions are for information only and do not guarantee a win.
More predictions
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