Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 2–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Chelsea against Manchester United: 31 October 2026 · 12:30 at Stamford Bridge (London), referee P. Bankes. Chelsea (48%) go into the match as favourites. Here you will find our tip, result probabilities, absences and analysis.
Chelsea vs Manchester United: match analysis
Why we made this tip
- Table. Chelsea are 5th with 16 points from 10 matches (5W 1D 4L); Manchester United are 18th with 8 points (1W 5D 4L).
- Attack and defence. Chelsea average 2.1 goals scored and 1.9 conceded per match in the competition; Manchester United score 1.3 and concede 1.6.
- Form in the competition. Chelsea: 4W 1D 3L, goals 17–15; Manchester United: 1W 4D 3L, goals 10–13.
- Head to head. Of their 41 meetings, Chelsea have 14 wins and Manchester United 13 wins, with 14 draws; goals 53–55.
What to expect
We expect Chelsea to have the upper hand: our score estimate is 2–1, so roughly 3 goals in total. The most likely result is 1–1 (10.5%). We expect an open match with goals.
Our goals tip: Both teams to score (odds 1.55), which we rate at 62%. We put the chance of both teams scoring at 62% and of over 2.5 goals at 60%.
Key points of the prediction
- Meetings: 41; Chelsea 14 wins, 14 draws, Manchester United 13 wins.
- Their meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per match.
- Goals for and against in the competition: Chelsea 17–15, Manchester United 10–13.
- We expect roughly 3 goals; the chance of over 2.5 goals is 60%.
- Absences: Chelsea 7, Manchester United 6.
Alternative tip: Under 3.5 goals
Alternative: Under 3.5 goals (probability 61%, best odds 1.57). We expect roughly 3 goals, which supports this tip.
Absences
Chelsea will be without: A. Anselmino, J. Gittens, J. Hato, R. James, Joao Pedro, M. Lacroix, E. Martinez. Manchester United are missing: P. Dorgu, B. Sesko, L. Shaw, M. Ugarte, K. Mainoo, M. Rashford. Check the team news again before kick-off.
Chelsea vs Manchester United: odds comparison
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best odds on the market | 2.05 | 3.95 | 4.10 |
| Market average | 1.97 | 3.75 | 3.63 |
| Lowest odds | 1.82 | 3.46 | 3.40 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.21 | 1.16 | 80.8% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.64 | 1.60 | 59.5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.46 | 2.35 | 40.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.52 | 2.44 | 38.8% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.55 | 1.51 | 61.8% |
| BTTS – no | 2.60 | 2.44 | 38.2% |
The odds summarise prices from several bookmakers, updated 31/10/26, 09:22. They are a guide only and may differ at a given operator. Average margin 5.1%.
Key facts
- Likely result: Chelsea 1–1 Manchester United, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Chelsea 5th (16 points), Manchester United 18th (8 points).
- Form in the competition: Chelsea 4W 1D 3L (17:15), Manchester United 1W 4D 3L (10:13).
- H2H: 41 matches: Chelsea 14W 14D 13L, goals 53–55.
- Absences: Chelsea 7, Manchester United 6.
Who will win Chelsea vs Manchester United?
The estimate is based on odds from several bookmakers with the margin removed. It is not a guarantee of the result.
Chelsea vs Manchester United: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the best odds are higher than the fair odds, the price offers value. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider below 50%.
Corners and cards tips
Correct score prediction
Chelsea vs Manchester United: absences and injuries
Chelsea
- A. Anselminoinjury · will miss the match
- J. Gittensankle injury · will miss the match
- J. Hatoinjury · will miss the match
- R. Jamesknee injury · will miss the match
- Joao Pedrothigh injury · will miss the match
- M. Lacroixmuscle injury · will miss the match
- E. Martinezabsence · will miss the match
Manchester United
- P. Dorguhamstring injury · will miss the match
- B. Seskoabsence · will miss the match
- L. Shawinjury · will miss the match
- M. Ugarteknee injury · will miss the match
- K. Mainooinjury · doubtful
- M. Rashfordhip injury · doubtful
The list may change before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Arsenal | 10 | 9-0-1 | 15:5 | 27 |
| 2 |  Brighton | 10 | 7-1-2 | 26:7 | 22 |
| 3 |  Manchester City | 10 | 7-0-3 | 21:13 | 21 |
| 4 |  Liverpool | 10 | 5-3-2 | 14:10 | 18 |
| 5 | Chelsea | 10 | 5-1-4 | 19:16 | 16 |
| 6 |  Everton | 10 | 4-4-2 | 12:10 | 16 |
| 7 |  Bournemouth | 10 | 4-3-3 | 16:14 | 15 |
| 8 |  Brentford | 10 | 3-5-2 | 16:11 | 14 |
| 9 |  Leeds | 10 | 3-5-2 | 10:8 | 14 |
| 10 |  Aston Villa | 10 | 3-4-3 | 14:17 | 13 |
| 11 |  Tottenham | 10 | 3-3-4 | 10:11 | 12 |
| 12 |  Newcastle | 10 | 3-3-4 | 13:16 | 12 |
| 13 |  Hull City | 10 | 2-5-3 | 11:11 | 11 |
| 14 |  Ipswich | 10 | 3-2-5 | 15:20 | 11 |
| 15 |  Fulham | 10 | 2-4-4 | 10:12 | 10 |
| 16 |  Nottingham Forest | 10 | 2-3-5 | 9:13 | 9 |
| 17 |  Coventry | 10 | 3-0-7 | 10:19 | 9 |
| 18 | Manchester United | 10 | 1-5-4 | 14:19 | 8 |
| 19 |  Sunderland | 10 | 2-2-6 | 8:17 | 8 |
| 20 |  Crystal Palace | 10 | 2-1-7 | 10:24 | 7 |
Recent matches
Chelsea
Home and away
Chelsea vs Manchester United: last matches of both teams
Chelsea
Manchester United
Team comparison
The values are based on this season's matches so far, so the sample is still small.
Form in the competition
ChelseaLWLWWManchester UnitedDLLDDHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
What is the tip for Chelsea vs Manchester United?
Draw or Manchester United (X2) (2.00); Both teams to score (1.55).
Who will win Chelsea vs Manchester United?
By our estimate, the probabilities are: Chelsea win 48%, draw 25%, Manchester United win 26%.
When and where is the match played?
31 October 2026 at 12:30, venue: Stamford Bridge, London. Referee: P. Bankes.
Who will be missing?
Chelsea: A. Anselmino, J. Gittens, J. Hato, R. James, Joao Pedro, M. Lacroix, E. Martinez. Manchester United: P. Dorgu, B. Sesko, L. Shaw, M. Ugarte, K. Mainoo, M. Rashford. The list may change before the match.
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
By our estimate, the chance of over 2.5 goals is 60% (odds 1.64) and of under 2.5 goals 40% (odds 2.46).
Will both teams score?
We estimate the probability of both teams scoring at 62% (odds 1.55).
What is the most likely correct score?
The most likely score is 1–1 (10.5%), followed by 2–1 (9.5%) and 1–0 (8.1%).
How are your predictions made?
We derive the probabilities from the odds of several bookmakers: we remove the margin and average the prices, then calculate the expected goals and the most likely scores with a Poisson distribution. Team form, head to head and absences are on the page as context. Our predictions are for information only and do not guarantee a win.
More predictions
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