Bet with Freshbet →Our tip for Newcastle vs Arsenal (Premier League, 21 November 2026, 17:30): Newcastle +1.5 (Asian handicap) at odds of 1.56. Second tip: Under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.45. The bookmakers' odds give Newcastle 18%, the draw 23% and Arsenal 59%. The most likely score is 0–1.
Wins: Newcastle win, a draw, Newcastle lose by 1. Loses: Newcastle lose by 2 or more.
Newcastle vs Arsenal prediction
Our tip is Newcastle +1.5 at odds 1.56, which the bookmakers rate at a 63% chance. Arsenal are the likely winners at St. James' Park on 21 November 2026, kick-off 17:30, but we do not think the margin will be large. The bet wins unless Newcastle lose by two or more, so a single-goal home defeat still pays.
Key facts
- Likely result: Newcastle 0–1 Arsenal, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Newcastle 12th (12 points), Arsenal 1st (27 points).
- Form in the competition: Newcastle 3W 3D 4L (13:16), Arsenal 9W 0D 1L (15:5).
- Absences: Newcastle 0, Arsenal 0.
Arsenal's lead against Newcastle's home record
In this competition only, Arsenal sit first with 24 points from 9 matches, with 8 wins, 1 defeat, 14 goals scored and 5 conceded. Newcastle are 13th with 11 points, 3 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats and a goal record of 12:15. Their home figures are weaker still: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats, with 6 scored and 7 conceded. Arsenal's away record in the same table is 4 wins, no draws and 1 defeat, with 5 goals for and 3 against.
Per match, Newcastle score 1.3 and concede 1.7 in this competition. Arsenal score 1.6 and concede 0.6. That gap at both ends is why Arsenal are favourites, and we do not argue with it. Our disagreement is only about how much they win by.
Who will win Newcastle vs Arsenal?
The estimate is based on odds from several bookmakers with the margin removed. It is not a guarantee of the result.
Newcastle's last five and Arsenal's clean sheets
These figures cover all competitions, so they are a wider sample than the table. Newcastle's last five produced 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats, with 4 goals scored and 7 conceded. Their results ran from a 4-1 defeat away at Coventry through a 0-1 home defeat to Aston Villa, a 2-0 win at Crystal Palace, a 0-1 home defeat to Everton and a 1-1 draw away at Fulham. Both teams scored in 2 of those matches, and Newcastle failed to score in 2 of them. That is not a side we would back to score freely.
Arsenal's last five were all wins: 5 of 5, with 7 goals scored. They have kept a clean sheet in 4 of those matches, and that is the strand of their form we trust most. Only 1 of their five games went over 2.5 goals. Their results included a 2-1 home win over Leeds, a 1-0 win away at Nottingham Forest, a 2-0 home win over Everton, a 1-0 away win at Liverpool and a 1-0 home win over Hull City.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Arsenal | 10 | 9-0-1 | 15:5 | 27 |
| 2 |  Brighton | 10 | 7-1-2 | 26:7 | 22 |
| 3 |  Manchester City | 10 | 7-0-3 | 21:13 | 21 |
| 4 |  Liverpool | 10 | 5-3-2 | 14:10 | 18 |
| 5 |  Chelsea | 10 | 5-1-4 | 19:16 | 16 |
| 6 |  Everton | 10 | 4-4-2 | 12:10 | 16 |
| 7 |  Bournemouth | 10 | 4-3-3 | 16:14 | 15 |
| 8 |  Brentford | 10 | 3-5-2 | 16:11 | 14 |
| 9 |  Leeds | 10 | 3-5-2 | 10:8 | 14 |
| 10 |  Aston Villa | 10 | 3-4-3 | 14:17 | 13 |
| 11 |  Tottenham | 10 | 3-3-4 | 10:11 | 12 |
| 12 |  Newcastle | 10 | 3-3-4 | 13:16 | 12 |
| 13 |  Hull City | 10 | 2-5-3 | 11:11 | 11 |
| 14 |  Ipswich | 10 | 3-2-5 | 15:20 | 11 |
| 15 |  Fulham | 10 | 2-4-4 | 10:12 | 10 |
| 16 |  Nottingham Forest | 10 | 2-3-5 | 9:13 | 9 |
| 17 |  Coventry | 10 | 3-0-7 | 10:19 | 9 |
| 18 |  Manchester United | 10 | 1-5-4 | 14:19 | 8 |
| 19 |  Sunderland | 10 | 2-2-6 | 8:17 | 8 |
| 20 |  Crystal Palace | 10 | 2-1-7 | 10:24 | 7 |
Recent matches
Newcastle
Home and away
Newcastle vs Arsenal: last matches of both teams
Newcastle
Arsenal
No prior meeting and no injury news
We have no earlier meeting between these two sides to work from, so no head-to-head pattern can carry any weight here. Nor have any absences been reported for either side. The judgement therefore rests on the season figures and on what the bookmakers make of them, and we are comfortable leaving it there.
Newcastle vs Arsenal: absences and injuries
Newcastle
- No reported absences
Arsenal
- No reported absences
The list may change before kick-off.
Team comparison
The values are based on this season's matches so far, so the sample is still small.
Form in the competition
NewcastleDLWLLArsenalWWWWWWhat the bookmakers expect from this match
The market makes Arsenal 59% to win, a draw 23% and a Newcastle win 18%. The best odds are 1.63 on Arsenal and 5.65 on Newcastle, and the bookmaker margin on the result is 6.3%. Expected goals are 2 for Arsenal and 1 for Newcastle, about 3 in total. The most likely exact scores are 0-1 at 11.0%, 0-2 at 10.4% and 1-1 at 10.4%. These are what the bookmakers expect, and we read them as a guide to where the prices sit, not as a forecast of the result.
Newcastle vs Arsenal: odds comparison
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best odds on the market | 5.65 | 4.42 | 1.63 |
| Market average | 5.32 | 4.11 | 1.58 |
| Lowest odds | 4.84 | 3.77 | 1.52 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.25 | 1.22 | 77.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.77 | 1.72 | 55.1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.22 | 2.11 | 44.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.88 | 2.76 | 34.0% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.80 | 1.75 | 53.2% |
| BTTS – no | 2.05 | 1.99 | 46.8% |
The odds summarise prices from several bookmakers, updated 8/11/26, 12:52. They are a guide only and may differ at a given operator. Average margin 6.5%.
Newcastle +1.5 at 1.56: holding the margin
We like this bet because it asks Newcastle for less than a win. At +1.5 a Newcastle defeat by one goal still collects, and a draw or a win does too. Our reasons are short:
- The market gives this handicap a 63% chance before kick-off.
- The best odds available on it are 1.56.
- Those two numbers together make it the price we trust most on the page.
On the likeliest scores, a 0-1, 1-1 or 1-2 result wins the bet. A 0-2, 0-3 or 1-3 result loses it. The risk is a heavy home defeat, and Newcastle's 7 goals conceded in their last five matches show that the risk is real.
Second tip: Under 3.5 goals
Our second tip is Under 3.5 goals at odds 1.47, which the market rates at 66%. Newcastle have gone over 2.5 goals in only 1 of their last five matches, and Arsenal have done so in only 1 of theirs. Arsenal have kept a clean sheet in 4 of those five. Those three facts are why we are happy with this price, and the market agrees with us.
It wins on 0-1, 0-2, 1-1, 1-2 and 0-3, and loses only on 1-3. That fits the same game we expect for the main tip, which is why we are happy to back both.
Two more prices we would consider
Newcastle +2 at odds 1.24 carries a 77% chance. It wins unless Newcastle lose by three or more, and a defeat by exactly two returns the stake, so it is the more comfortable version of our main idea. Over 1.5 goals at odds 1.24, with a 78% chance, fits alongside the Under 3.5 tip, since together they cover totals of two and three goals. We would not back Arsenal to win by two or more, and we would not chase Newcastle to win outright at 5.65. The margin is where the value sits, and both of these prices reflect that.
Newcastle vs Arsenal: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the best odds are higher than the fair odds, the price offers value. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider below 50%.
Correct score prediction
Returns calculator
Questions and answers
What is the tip for Newcastle vs Arsenal?
Newcastle +1.5 (Asian handicap) (1.56); Under 3.5 goals (1.45).
Who will win Newcastle vs Arsenal?
By our estimate, the probabilities are: Newcastle win 18%, draw 23%, Arsenal win 59%.
When and where is the match played?
21 November 2026 at 17:30, venue: St. James' Park, Newcastle.
Who will be missing?
Newcastle: no absences. Arsenal: no absences. The list may change before the match.
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
By our estimate, the chance of over 2.5 goals is 55% (odds 1.77) and of under 2.5 goals 45% (odds 2.22).
Will both teams score?
We estimate the probability of both teams scoring at 53% (odds 1.80).
What is the most likely correct score?
The most likely score is 0–1 (11.0%), followed by 0–2 (10.4%) and 1–1 (10.4%).
How are your predictions made?
We derive the probabilities from the odds of several bookmakers: we remove the margin and average the prices, then calculate the expected goals and the most likely scores with a Poisson distribution. Team form, head to head and absences are on the page as context. Our predictions are for information only and do not guarantee a win.
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