Liverpool vs Manchester United prediction, tip and odds – 22 November 2026, Premier League

Liverpool vs Manchester United prediction

Liverpool host Manchester United at Anfield on 22 November 2026, kick-off 16:30, in Matchweek 11 of the Premier League. Liverpool sit sixth with 15 points from nine matches, while United are 18th with 7. Those positions cover this competition only, and they do not tell the whole story of either side, so we will look at the wider form as well.

How are both sides coming into this?

Across their most recent five games in every competition, Liverpool picked up three victories and suffered two losses, netting 7 times while letting in 6. The softer spot is at home in the league, where they have managed one win, two draws and two defeats, scoring 4 and conceding 6 at Anfield. That is hardly an impregnable home record, and it is why we would hesitate to back the favourite too aggressively.

United are in a worse place. Across their last five games in every competition, they have yet to taste victory: two defeats and three draws, with 3 goals scored against 8 conceded. Away from home in the league, they have drawn three and lost two, and they are still waiting for a win on the road. Whatever the draws suggest, we would not describe that as a side in form.

Who scores, and who keeps the door shut?

Liverpool have scored 11 and conceded 9, averaging 1.2 scored and 1.0 conceded a game. United, with 10 scored and 15 conceded, average 1.1 and 1.7. Going forward the two sides are nearly level, so the gap comes down to defence. United have shipped 15 goals in nine league outings, and that leak is the part of their record we find most troubling.

Bookmaker pricing points to Liverpool scoring around 2 and United around 1, so roughly 3 goals overall. Looking at United's most recent five games across every competition, both sides found the net in three of them, while only one went over 2.5 goals. Our view is that United's shaky defending is more likely to decide things at Anfield than their attacking output.

Have these two met before?

There is no prior meeting between these two sides on file, which means no head-to-head trend to fall back on. Current form and the odds carry the analysis here, and that suits us fine. Past results will not settle this one.

Is anyone missing for either club?

No absentees are reported for either Liverpool or Manchester United. The prices we discuss below therefore rest on the players who are actually available.

What are the odds makers forecasting for the Anfield clash?

Bookmakers price Liverpool as the side to beat, giving them a 52% chance of victory, while a draw sits at 24% and a United win also at 24%. The top quotes are 1.86 for Liverpool, 4.20 for the draw and 4.33 for United. The overround on the 1X2 market stands at 5.9%. Exact scores that come up most often are 1-1 at 10.5%, 2-1 at 9.7% and 1-0 at 8.8%. Over 2.5 goals is at 59%, with a top price of 1.65.

Liverpool vs Manchester United tip: Manchester United +0.75

Our top pick is Manchester United +0.75 (Asian handicap) at odds 1.88 (chance 53%). The money is split equally: one portion backs United +0.5, the other United +1. With +0.5, a United win or a draw wins, and only a loss by one goal or more loses. With +1, the bet fails only when United lose by two goals or more, while a single-goal defeat gives the stake back. Among the most probable scores, a 1-1 draw wins, and so does a 1-2 United victory. A Liverpool 2-1 or 1-0 win costs half the stake, whereas 2-0 and 3-1 wipe out the whole stake.

• Bookmaker pricing puts the probability of this outcome at 53%.
• The best odds of 1.88 are a price we are happy to take.
• No other handicap in the market gives us a better balance between chance and return.

This is not a call on United to beat Anfield. A straight win at 4.33, with a 24% likelihood, is too thin for us. The appeal lies in the buffer: a one-goal loss still leaves the ticket alive, and a draw pays out. Liverpool's league form at home simply isn't strong enough to make us want a larger edge.

Under 3.5 goals is our second selection, priced at 1.57 with a 61% chance. Our reasoning rests on a single point: United exceeded 2.5 goals in just one of their most recent five games across every competition, and the market puts the probability at 61% with the best available price at 1.57. The bet cones through on 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 2-0 and 1-2, and falls short only on a 3-1 scoreline. We also feel comfortable backing it together with the handicap pick.

Which other prices would we touch?

These are the other bets we would consider, all at the odds given:

• Over 1.5 goals at odds 1.20 (chance 81%): it is the lowest price we would accept, and it lines up with an expected total near 3 goals.
• Manchester United +1.75 (Asian handicap) at odds 1.26 (chance 75%), a bigger buffer for United that fits neatly alongside our main tip.
• Both sides to find the net, priced at 1.65 (a 60% chance): the number looks fair, though we would keep the stake modest.
• Draw or Manchester United (X2) at odds 2.10 (chance 48%), a bigger return for those who want more on the same view.

Our last word on Anfield

On the numbers Liverpool come out ahead, and the bookmakers have priced that in. The sharper question for us is whether United can hold the gap small, and we think they can, at least in the handicap. We are backing Manchester United +0.75 at 1.88 and Under 3.5 at 1.57, and we are staying away from the outright markets.