Hull City vs Brighton prediction, tip and odds – 22 November 2026, Premier League

Hull City vs Brighton prediction

Hull City host Brighton at the MKM Stadium on 22 November 2026, with kick-off at 14:00 in the Premier League's Matchweek 11. On the table, Brighton sit third with 19 points from nine matches, while Hull are 13th with 11 points from ten. That is a clear gap between a side near the top and one still scrambling for a foothold. The table covers this competition only, so the picture can look different once cup and European results are added.

Form lines that point in different directions

Brighton arrive on a run that reads like a team in full flow. In their last five matches in all competitions they have won four and lost one, scoring 11 times and conceding only twice. Four of those five matches ended with Brighton keeping a clean sheet, and their away form in this competition (3 wins, 0 draws, 2 defeats, 11:6 in goals) is solid rather than spectacular. Their 24 goals in this competition, from 2.7 per match, are the number that stands out.

Hull have been harder to read. Their last five matches in all competitions gave no wins, three draws and two defeats, with 5 goals scored and 7 conceded. The draws are the story here. Hull have been close in most of their games without finding a way to win one, and in this competition they have scored 1.1 per match and conceded 1.1. That is a team that keeps the scoreboard moving but rarely pulls away from anyone.

No earlier meeting to lean on

There is no earlier meeting between these two sides that we can draw on, so this match has to be judged on the current form of both teams and on how Hull have looked at home. Neither side has reported any absences, which means we are looking at the squads as they are expected to line up. We have no reason to suspect a team news surprise, and we are not going to guess at one.

What the prices say about this game

The bookmakers make Brighton the strong favourites. Their chance of a win is 61%, with the best odds on offer at 1.57, while Hull City win is 17% at best odds of 6.16 and the draw sits at 22% with odds of 4.62. Those chances describe what the market expects from this match, not how often either side has won in the past.

The goals market is more interesting. Over 2.5 goals is priced at 57%, and under 3.5 at 64%. The expected goals are Hull 1, Brighton 2, which points to about three goals in total. The most likely exact scores in the market are 0-2 at 10.5%, 0-1 at 10.5% and 1-2 at 9.9%. Taken together, those are the scorelines that define our tips.

Hull City vs Brighton tip: Hull City +1.5

Our main tip is Hull City +1.5 (Asian handicap) at odds 1.62, with a chance of 61%. At +1.5 the bet wins unless Hull City lose by 2 or more, so Hull can lose 1-0 or 1-2 and still have us in front, while a 0-2 or 1-3 defeat would cost the stake.

We are not claiming Hull will win this game. We are saying the handicap line gives them a realistic route to keeping the bet alive.

• Hull have not lost at home in this competition, which gives this price some substance at the MKM.
• The market gives Hull City a 61% chance at this handicap, so the price is not a long shot.

On the likeliest scores, a 0-1 or 1-2 keeps the bet alive, while 0-2 and 1-3 lose it. That is a narrow margin, and we accept it because the handicap is priced around that exact boundary.

Under 3.5 as the second opinion

Our second tip is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.52, with a chance of 64%. The case rests on the recent form of both teams. Hull have had more than 2.5 goals in only two of their last five matches in all competitions, and Brighton have done the same in two of theirs. Brighton have also kept a clean sheet in four of their last five, which means their defence has been hard to break down. Under 3.5 loses only on a 1-3 score in our settlement, so a 0-3 or 0-2 still wins.

Other markets we would consider

If you want to add a bet alongside the tips, we like Over 1.5 goals at odds 1.22 with a chance of 79%. It fits with under 3.5 and gives you a safe base for a match where the expected total is about three. For a bigger price that still backs Hull, Hull City +2 (Asian handicap) at odds 1.28 is the line we would look at. At +2 the bet wins unless Hull City lose by 3 or more, and a defeat by exactly 2 returns the stake.

Our last word on the MKM afternoon

Brighton have the better numbers and the market is right to make them favourites. Our angle is the price on Hull at home, and the fact that the handicap lets them lose by one without losing the bet. We would not back Brighton to win by a big margin on this evidence, and we would not chase the bigger handicap prices either. Hull +1.5 and under 3.5 are the two bets we are happy to stand behind.