EFL Cup
Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 3–2. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Sunderland against Brentford: 28 October 2026 · 19:45 at Stadium of Light (Sunderland), referee G. Ward. Brentford (53%) go into the match as favourites. Here you will find our tip, result probabilities, absences and analysis.
Wins: Sunderland win, a draw. Stake back: Sunderland lose by 1. Loses: Sunderland lose by 2 or more.
Sunderland vs Brentford: match analysis
Why we made this tip
- Attack and defence. Sunderland average 1.0 goals scored and 0.0 conceded per match in the competition; Brentford score 4.0 and concede 1.0.
- Form in the competition. Sunderland: 1W 0D 0L, goals 1–0; Brentford: 2W 0D 0L, goals 8–2.
- Head to head. Of their 5 meetings, Sunderland have 1 win and Brentford 2 wins, with 2 draws; goals 6–10.
What to expect
We expect Brentford to have the upper hand: our score estimate is 1–2, so roughly 3 goals in total. The most likely result is 1–1 (11.2%). We expect an open match with goals.
Our goals tip: Both teams to score (odds 1.67), which we rate at 56%. We put the chance of both teams scoring at 56% and of over 2.5 goals at 54%.
Key points of the prediction
- Meetings: 5; Sunderland 1 win, 2 draws, Brentford 2 wins.
- Their meetings have averaged 3.2 goals per match.
- Goals for and against in the competition: Sunderland 1–0, Brentford 8–2.
- We expect roughly 3 goals; the chance of over 2.5 goals is 54%.
- Absences: Sunderland 0, Brentford 0.
Alternative tip: Over 2.5 goals
Alternative: Over 2.5 goals (probability 54%, best odds 1.77). We expect roughly 3 goals, which supports this tip.
Absences
Sunderland will be without: no absences. Brentford are missing: no absences. Check the team news again before kick-off.
Sunderland vs Brentford: odds comparison
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best odds on the market | 4.55 | 3.90 | 1.85 |
| Market average | 4.30 | 3.81 | 1.78 |
| Lowest odds | 4.00 | 3.50 | 1.73 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.24 | 1.22 | 76.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.77 | 1.74 | 54.4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.12 | 2.08 | 45.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.89 | 2.75 | 33.8% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.67 | 1.66 | 55.8% |
| BTTS – no | 2.12 | 2.10 | 44.2% |
The odds summarise prices from several bookmakers, updated 28/10/26, 18:00. They are a guide only and may differ at a given operator. Average margin 5.8%.
Key facts
- Likely result: Sunderland 1–1 Brentford, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Form in the competition: Sunderland 1W 0D 0L (1:0), Brentford 2W 0D 0L (8:2).
- H2H: 5 matches: Sunderland 1W 2D 2L, goals 6–10.
- Absences: Sunderland 0, Brentford 0.
Who will win Sunderland vs Brentford?
The estimate is based on odds from several bookmakers with the margin removed. It is not a guarantee of the result.
Sunderland vs Brentford: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the best odds are higher than the fair odds, the price offers value. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider below 50%.
Corners and cards tips
Correct score prediction
Sunderland vs Brentford: absences and injuries
Sunderland
- No reported absences
Brentford
- No reported absences
The list may change before kick-off.
Sunderland vs Brentford: last matches of both teams
Sunderland
Brentford
Team comparison
The values are based on this season's matches so far, so the sample is still small.
Form in the competition
SunderlandWBrentfordWWHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
What is the tip for Sunderland vs Brentford?
Sunderland +1 (Asian handicap) (1.62); Both teams to score (1.67).
Who will win Sunderland vs Brentford?
By our estimate, the probabilities are: Sunderland win 22%, draw 25%, Brentford win 53%.
When and where is the match played?
28 October 2026 at 19:45, venue: Stadium of Light, Sunderland. Referee: G. Ward.
Who will be missing?
Sunderland: no absences. Brentford: no absences. The list may change before the match.
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
By our estimate, the chance of over 2.5 goals is 54% (odds 1.77) and of under 2.5 goals 46% (odds 2.12).
Will both teams score?
We estimate the probability of both teams scoring at 56% (odds 1.67).
What is the most likely correct score?
The most likely score is 1–1 (11.2%), followed by 0–1 (10.6%) and 1–2 (9.8%).
How are your predictions made?
We derive the probabilities from the odds of several bookmakers: we remove the margin and average the prices, then calculate the expected goals and the most likely scores with a Poisson distribution. Team form, head to head and absences are on the page as context. Our predictions are for information only and do not guarantee a win.
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