EFL Cup
Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 1–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Liverpool host Chelsea on 28 October 2026 · 20:00 at Anfield (Liverpool), with D. England as referee. We see the match as evenly balanced. Below you will find our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and match analysis.
Liverpool vs Chelsea: match analysis
Why we made this tip
- Attack and defence. Liverpool average 3.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per match in the competition; Chelsea score 4.0 and concede 1.5.
- Form in the competition. Liverpool: 1W 0D 0L, goals 3–1; Chelsea: 2W 0D 0L, goals 8–3.
What to expect
We expect an even match: our score estimate is 2–1, so roughly 3 goals in total. The most likely result is 1–1 (10.6%). We expect an open match with goals.
Our goals tip: Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.56), which we rate at 62%. We put the chance of both teams scoring at 65% and of over 2.5 goals at 62%.
Key points of the prediction
- Goals for and against in the competition: Liverpool 3–1, Chelsea 8–3.
- We expect roughly 3 goals; the chance of over 2.5 goals is 62%.
- Absences: Liverpool 0, Chelsea 0.
Alternative tip: Under 3.5 goals
Alternative: Under 3.5 goals (probability 58%, best odds 1.65). We expect roughly 3 goals, which supports this tip.
Absences
Liverpool will be without: no absences. Chelsea are missing: no absences. Check the team news again before kick-off.
Liverpool vs Chelsea: odds comparison
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best odds on the market | 2.32 | 3.80 | 3.09 |
| Market average | 2.28 | 3.67 | 2.97 |
| Lowest odds | 2.20 | 3.40 | 2.88 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.17 | 1.14 | 81.8% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.56 | 1.52 | 61.5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.53 | 2.43 | 38.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.35 | 2.26 | 41.8% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.44 | 1.43 | 64.8% |
| BTTS – no | 2.70 | 2.63 | 35.2% |
The odds summarise prices from several bookmakers, updated 28/10/26, 18:00. They are a guide only and may differ at a given operator. Average margin 5.0%.
Key facts
- Likely result: Liverpool 1–1 Chelsea, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Form in the competition: Liverpool 1W 0D 0L (3:1), Chelsea 2W 0D 0L (8:3).
- Absences: Liverpool 0, Chelsea 0.
Who will win Liverpool vs Chelsea?
The estimate is based on odds from several bookmakers with the margin removed. It is not a guarantee of the result.
Liverpool vs Chelsea: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the best odds are higher than the fair odds, the price offers value. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider below 50%.
Corners and cards tips
Correct score prediction
Liverpool vs Chelsea: absences and injuries
Liverpool
- No reported absences
Chelsea
- No reported absences
The list may change before kick-off.
Liverpool vs Chelsea: last matches of both teams
Liverpool
Chelsea
Team comparison
The values are based on this season's matches so far, so the sample is still small.
Form in the competition
LiverpoolWChelseaWWReturns calculator
Questions and answers
What is the tip for Liverpool vs Chelsea?
Draw or Chelsea (X2) (1.70); Over 2.5 goals (1.56).
Who will win Liverpool vs Chelsea?
By our estimate, the probabilities are: Liverpool win 42%, draw 26%, Chelsea win 32%.
When and where is the match played?
28 October 2026 at 20:00, venue: Anfield, Liverpool. Referee: D. England.
Who will be missing?
Liverpool: no absences. Chelsea: no absences. The list may change before the match.
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
By our estimate, the chance of over 2.5 goals is 62% (odds 1.56) and of under 2.5 goals 38% (odds 2.53).
Will both teams score?
We estimate the probability of both teams scoring at 65% (odds 1.44).
What is the most likely correct score?
The most likely score is 1–1 (10.6%), followed by 2–1 (9.0%) and 1–2 (7.7%).
How are your predictions made?
We derive the probabilities from the odds of several bookmakers: we remove the margin and average the prices, then calculate the expected goals and the most likely scores with a Poisson distribution. Team form, head to head and absences are on the page as context. Our predictions are for information only and do not guarantee a win.
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