EFL Cup
Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 3–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Everton against Newcastle: 29 October 2026 · 19:45 at Hill Dickinson Stadium (Liverpool), referee F. Hallam. We expect a close match. Here you will find our tip, result probabilities, absences and analysis.
Wins: Newcastle win. Half wins (half the stake back): a draw. Loses: Newcastle lose.
Everton vs Newcastle: match analysis
Why we made this tip
- Attack and defence. Everton average 2.5 goals scored and 0.0 conceded per match in the competition; Newcastle score 2.0 and concede 1.0.
- Form in the competition. Everton: 2W 0D 0L, goals 5–0; Newcastle: 2W 0D 0L, goals 4–2.
- Head to head. Of their 33 meetings, Everton have 18 wins and Newcastle 10 wins, with 5 draws; goals 54–41.
What to expect
We expect an even match: our score estimate is 2–1, so roughly 3 goals in total. The most likely result is 1–1 (11.5%). We expect an open match with goals.
Our goals tip: Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.50), which we rate at 64%. We put the chance of both teams scoring at 61% and of over 2.5 goals at 57%.
Key points of the prediction
- Meetings: 33; Everton 18 wins, 5 draws, Newcastle 10 wins.
- Their meetings have averaged 2.9 goals per match.
- Goals for and against in the competition: Everton 5–0, Newcastle 4–2.
- We expect roughly 3 goals; the chance of over 2.5 goals is 57%.
- Absences: Everton 0, Newcastle 0.
Alternative tip: Both teams to score – yes
Alternative: Both teams to score – yes (probability 61%, best odds 1.55). We expect roughly 3 goals, which supports this tip.
Absences
Everton will be without: no absences. Newcastle are missing: no absences. Check the team news again before kick-off.
Everton vs Newcastle: odds comparison
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best odds on the market | 2.44 | 3.56 | 3.15 |
| Market average | 2.34 | 3.46 | 2.94 |
| Lowest odds | 2.21 | 3.22 | 2.73 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.23 | 1.20 | 77.9% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.72 | 1.67 | 56.7% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.25 | 2.19 | 43.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.77 | 2.62 | 35.9% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.55 | 1.53 | 60.8% |
| BTTS – no | 2.50 | 2.37 | 39.2% |
The odds summarise prices from several bookmakers, updated 29/10/26, 18:00. They are a guide only and may differ at a given operator. Average margin 5.9%.
Key facts
- Likely result: Everton 1–1 Newcastle, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Form in the competition: Everton 2W 0D 0L (5:0), Newcastle 2W 0D 0L (4:2).
- H2H: 33 matches: Everton 18W 5D 10L, goals 54–41.
- Absences: Everton 0, Newcastle 0.
Who will win Everton vs Newcastle?
The estimate is based on odds from several bookmakers with the margin removed. It is not a guarantee of the result.
Everton vs Newcastle: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the best odds are higher than the fair odds, the price offers value. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider below 50%.
Corners and cards tips
Correct score prediction
Everton vs Newcastle: absences and injuries
Everton
- No reported absences
Newcastle
- No reported absences
The list may change before kick-off.
Everton vs Newcastle: last matches of both teams
Everton
Newcastle
Team comparison
The values are based on this season's matches so far, so the sample is still small.
Form in the competition
EvertonWWNewcastleWWHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
What is the tip for Everton vs Newcastle?
Newcastle +0.25 (Asian handicap) (1.86); Under 3.5 goals (1.50).
Who will win Everton vs Newcastle?
By our estimate, the probabilities are: Everton win 40%, draw 27%, Newcastle win 32%.
When and where is the match played?
29 October 2026 at 19:45, venue: Hill Dickinson Stadium, Liverpool. Referee: F. Hallam.
Who will be missing?
Everton: no absences. Newcastle: no absences. The list may change before the match.
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
By our estimate, the chance of over 2.5 goals is 57% (odds 1.72) and of under 2.5 goals 43% (odds 2.25).
Will both teams score?
We estimate the probability of both teams scoring at 61% (odds 1.55).
What is the most likely correct score?
The most likely score is 1–1 (11.5%), followed by 2–1 (8.9%) and 1–0 (8.5%).
How are your predictions made?
We derive the probabilities from the odds of several bookmakers: we remove the margin and average the prices, then calculate the expected goals and the most likely scores with a Poisson distribution. Team form, head to head and absences are on the page as context. Our predictions are for information only and do not guarantee a win.
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