EFL Cup
Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 3–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Bournemouth host Aston Villa on 28 October 2026 · 19:45 at Vitality Stadium (Bournemouth), with T. Harrington as referee. We see the match as evenly balanced. Below you will find our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and match analysis.
Wins: Bournemouth win. Stake back: a draw. Loses: Bournemouth lose.
Bournemouth vs Aston Villa: match analysis
Why we made this tip
- Attack and defence. Bournemouth average 4.0 goals scored and 0.0 conceded per match in the competition; Aston Villa score 3.0 and concede 1.0.
- Form in the competition. Bournemouth: 1W 0D 0L, goals 4–0; Aston Villa: 1W 0D 0L, goals 3–1.
What to expect
We expect an even match: our score estimate is 2–1, so roughly 3 goals in total. The most likely result is 1–1 (10.8%). We expect an open match with goals.
Our goals tip: Both teams to score (odds 1.50), which we rate at 63%. We put the chance of both teams scoring at 63% and of over 2.5 goals at 60%.
Key points of the prediction
- Goals for and against in the competition: Bournemouth 4–0, Aston Villa 3–1.
- We expect roughly 3 goals; the chance of over 2.5 goals is 60%.
- Absences: Bournemouth 0, Aston Villa 0.
Alternative tip: Under 3.5 goals
Alternative: Under 3.5 goals (probability 60%, best odds 1.59). We expect roughly 3 goals, which supports this tip.
Absences
Bournemouth will be without: no absences. Aston Villa are missing: no absences. Check the team news again before kick-off.
Bournemouth vs Aston Villa: odds comparison
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best odds on the market | 2.37 | 3.70 | 2.93 |
| Market average | 2.33 | 3.60 | 2.88 |
| Lowest odds | 2.30 | 3.40 | 2.80 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.18 | 1.15 | 81.0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.59 | 1.57 | 60.1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.45 | 2.37 | 39.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.45 | 2.34 | 39.7% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.50 | 1.46 | 63.4% |
| BTTS – no | 2.56 | 2.53 | 36.6% |
The odds summarise prices from several bookmakers, updated 28/10/26, 18:00. They are a guide only and may differ at a given operator. Average margin 5.5%.
Key facts
- Likely result: Bournemouth 1–1 Aston Villa, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Form in the competition: Bournemouth 1W 0D 0L (4:0), Aston Villa 1W 0D 0L (3:1).
- Absences: Bournemouth 0, Aston Villa 0.
Who will win Bournemouth vs Aston Villa?
The estimate is based on odds from several bookmakers with the margin removed. It is not a guarantee of the result.
Bournemouth vs Aston Villa: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the best odds are higher than the fair odds, the price offers value. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider below 50%.
Corners and cards tips
Correct score prediction
Bournemouth vs Aston Villa: absences and injuries
Bournemouth
- No reported absences
Aston Villa
- No reported absences
The list may change before kick-off.
Bournemouth vs Aston Villa: last matches of both teams
Bournemouth
Aston Villa
Team comparison
The values are based on this season's matches so far, so the sample is still small.
Form in the competition
BournemouthWAston VillaWReturns calculator
Questions and answers
What is the tip for Bournemouth vs Aston Villa?
Bournemouth +0 (Asian handicap) (1.75); Both teams to score (1.50).
Who will win Bournemouth vs Aston Villa?
By our estimate, the probabilities are: Bournemouth win 41%, draw 26%, Aston Villa win 33%.
When and where is the match played?
28 October 2026 at 19:45, venue: Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth. Referee: T. Harrington.
Who will be missing?
Bournemouth: no absences. Aston Villa: no absences. The list may change before the match.
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
By our estimate, the chance of over 2.5 goals is 60% (odds 1.59) and of under 2.5 goals 40% (odds 2.45).
Will both teams score?
We estimate the probability of both teams scoring at 63% (odds 1.50).
What is the most likely correct score?
The most likely score is 1–1 (10.8%), followed by 2–1 (8.9%) and 1–2 (7.8%).
How are your predictions made?
We derive the probabilities from the odds of several bookmakers: we remove the margin and average the prices, then calculate the expected goals and the most likely scores with a Poisson distribution. Team form, head to head and absences are on the page as context. Our predictions are for information only and do not guarantee a win.
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